Workshop “Què passa al món?” The crisis in Ukraine and Crimea's secession: new scenarios in the relationship between Russia and the European Union.

"CIDOB is closely monitoring the crisis in Ukraine. In collaboration with the Association of the United Nations in Spain (ANUE) it organised a new session of the workshop “Què passa al món?” (What happens in the world?) devoted to this issue. 

Xavier Pons, professor of international public law at the University of Barcelona, ​​and Carmen Claudín, senior research associate at CIDOB, discussed the issue of Crimea’s annexation by Russia and the implications for future relations of Ukraine with the EU and Russia. The debate –held at CIDOB- was moderated by Eduard Segarra, president of the ANUE. Carmen Claudín opened the session providing the key facts to contextualize the Ukrainian crisis and the relationship with Russia. 

According to Claudín this is another phase of an unfinished process of decolonization that began with the independence referendum held in Ukraine on December 1, 1991. The overall results of the referendum were clear: 84 percent participation and 90 percent of positive votes. Claudín pointed out that in spite of being lower, the results in the regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea were overwhelmingly in favour of independence -76, 84, 77 and 54 percent respectively-. The disappointing outcomes following the Orange Revolution of November 2004 due to the poor performance of its leaders were stressed by Claudín as a factor that facilitated the return to power of Viktor Yanukovych in 2010. Corruption and lack of improvement in the living conditions of citizens have been a constant in independent Ukraine. However, in the opinion of Claudín, the highest levels of corruption and disregard for the welfare of citizens were reached under President Yanukovich’s mandate. His refusal to sign the trade agreement with the EU, after spending months insisting on it, was for many the straw that broke the camel's back. His escape from Kyiv created a power vacuum that forced the establishment of a provisional government that, as CIDOB’s senior associate researcher emphasized, needs to be legalized and legitimized through the scheduled elections of May, 25th. However, the celebration of these elections is still uncertain due to the current circumstances in Eastern Ukraine. 

Claudín then referred to the reasons that explain Moscow’s reaction. Firstly, the Kremlin believes that Ukraine is part of “Russia’s area of ​​natural interests” and that is, indeed, the official terminology used in its narrative. Similarly, behind the action of Moscow lies the idea of the defence of the Russian minorities wherever they are. This leads, as Claudín emphasized, to an argument that could be summarized in the motto: “where my compatriots are, I have the right”. The Kremlin also uses three types of arguments and justifications for intervention: The interim government in Kyiv is illegitimate and is dominated by fascists who have carried out a coup d’état. This coup is the result of the Western interference, particularly from the EU. The Kremlin must defend the Russian-speaking minorities. Claudín drew attention to the confusion the Kremlin promotes between the three different concepts: Russian (ethnic), Russian-speaking, and pro-Russian. 

Finally, Claudín referred to the weak role played by the EU, highlighting the surprise of its leaders with the outbreak of Euromaidan. Division among Member States and lack of a common voice and policies towards Russia weakens the EU’s response capabilities. As she pointed out, some Member States share the idea that “indeed, Ukraine is Russia’s backyard”. Xavier Pons began his intervention asserting that the incorporation of Crimea to Russia is irreversible. Moscow has completely ignored international law, but there is little that can be done against her political effectiveness. According to Professor Pons the crisis in Ukraine can analytically be divided into three consecutive phases: - The first one focused on the Euromaidan protests from November to February 22, 2014. - The second, consequence of the first one, would be the three weeks of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. - The third one would be a replica of the Euromaidan in Eastern Ukraine but inspired by the Crimea phase lasting from early April up to present day. Pons emphasized that it is important to keep in mind that the ongoing process in Ukraine is an internal political crisis and, therefore, other States should refrain of interfering in its development. Professor Pons pointed out that, so far, massive human rights violations that may entail international intervention through the invocation of the principle of “responsibility to protect"" have not taken place. From a long term perspective, Professor Pons believes that the crisis in Ukraine is part of a geopolitical tectonic shift, whose foundations were laid in Yalta in 1945, and which suffered a sharp break with the fall of the Soviet block in 1989-1991. Professor Pons recalled to Budapest’s Memorandum of 1994 according to which Ukraine renounced to its nuclear arsenal and Russia guaranteed its territorial integrity. Pons drew attention to the role of China and other emerging powers in the Ukraine crisis and their abstention in both the General Assembly and the Security Council of United Nations. As he pointed out, international relations remain dominated by Great Powers logic. We do not know, Professor Pons said, where this tectonic shift and crisis will lead us, but we know that the weakness of multilateralism is detrimental to the validity and application of the principles of international law. Discussion with the audience mostly focused on the issues related to legitimacy and legality of the interim government in Kyiv and the scenarios of the relationship with Russia. 

This event was part of the efforts undertaken by CIDOB in relation to the crisis in Ukraine which include several publications and activities. CIDOB is currently organising a meeting in Kyiv to bring together around 20 of the most well-known European think tanks, and Russian experts, in order to reflect together with their Ukrainian peers on what has happened, what it means for all of us and what research institutions can do. Furthermore, CIDOB is arranging several activities in Barcelona and Madrid, with Ukrainian, Russian and European experts in order to contribute to a better understanding of this crisis in Spain. Activities include both open seminars targeted to a general audience and some closed-doors meetings with Spanish diplomats, policy-makers and community of experts. CIDOB Research Fellows focusing on the EU Eastern Partnership and the post-Soviet space - Carmen Claudin, Nicolás de Pedro and Elina Viilup- are regular contributors on these issues of the main Spanish media (El País, El Periódico, El Mundo, Diari Ara, Canal 24 horas, TVE, TV3, 3/24, Cadena SER, RNE, RNE4, RNE5, Catalunya Radio, COPE)."