Foreign policy in the US electoral campaign

"Martí Anglada: ""The hope Obama offers is difficult to define politically"" The United States of America is experiencing one of the most exciting electoral campaigns of recent years. Though the economic crisis has pushed foreign policy issues off the campaign debate agenda, the next occupant of the White House will have to make some important decisions, such as troop withdrawal from Iraq, the dispute with Iran and the stabilisation of Afghanistan and Pakistan, while Europe waits for the US to assume its leadership following the presidential elections. These are some of the conclusions that arose from the debate workshop organised by CIDOB, on the subject of foreign policy in the American elections. Participants in the debate included Martí Anglada, Head of International Information at Televisió de Catalunya, Gabriel Colomé, Director of the Centro de Estudios de Opinión at the Generalitat de Catalunya; Nuria Ribó, who was a correspondent in New York for eight years, and Esther Vera, a correspondent for Cuatro and CNN+ in Catalonia.

 ""It's the economy, stupid!"" The economic crisis has pushed foreign policy issues into the background during the campaign. Martí Anglada commented that it was surprising that a subject as controversial as the Arab-Israeli conflict has not become a subject for debate, ""as if McCain and Obama had agreed tactics in order to avoid it"". The fact that domestic policy dominated the debate is not something that has only featured in this campaign, it is a political tradition, which is only broken when security issues appear on the agenda, such as the war in Iraq or the fight against terrorism. In the opinion of Esther Vera, the US is a highly ""internalised"" country that only emerges into the exterior at times when the international situation facilitates the promotion of US values and interests, or when the country feels that its security is threatened. Thus, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the dispute over Iran's nuclear proliferation are the ""hot potatoes"" on which Obama and McCain have had to take their stances and which have marked their different views. This is shown by the Democrat candidate's daring offer, which was subsequently defined using the expression ""if the conditions are right"" (referring to possible dialogue with the Iran regime) or his initial stance during the primaries on accelerated troop deployment in Iraq. Nuria Ribó pointed to the gulf that separates Obama's intentions to ""end the war"" by reducing America's involvement, and those of McCain to ""win the war"", owing to the risk of chaos in the region that may follow the withdrawal of troops. The day after Among the foreign policy issues that the new occupant of the White House will find in his in-tray, there are some that will have implications for several decades, such as the reconstruction of the Atlantic alliance with Europe, as well as other short-term tasks, such as the stabilisation of Afghanistan and Pakistan – an issue that the lecturer Gabriel Colomé considers to be of vital geopolitical importance. 

While the conservative ideology that has been dominant in policy and economy for the past three decades recedes (though perhaps not definitively on the social agenda), a window of opportunity opens for establishing a new economic and political order that the United States can lead with Europe through new multilateral frameworks built on an ad hoc nature, and which can surpass the ones that were inherited from the post-war world (such as Bretton Woods and OECD), and without this involving the relaunching of the United Nations, said Martí Anglada, who warned of the danger that Obama, if he wins the elections, does not meet the expectations that have been generated. ""Hope is difficult to define in politics"", he added. Esther Vera, who does not believe in overly profound changes, claimed that ""the stubbornness of reality"" will mean that political decisions will not live up to electoral promises. The countdown begins Gabriel Colomé pointed out that the uniqueness of the American system, which is electorally distributed over the different states, is not sufficiently understood in Europe. A difference of more than 10 points in the national polls does not necessarily mean victory. Hence the importance of the change from red to blue that is taking place in certain southern states, which have since the 1970s traditionally been Republican strongholds, and of the symbolic value of the victory of an Afro-American in the old segregationist states. Colomé mentioned three states from the old ""Confederation"": Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, where the polls give a slight advantage to Obama, though he warned of the uncertainty of such polls in the country where not all citizens are registered, and where many of those who are registered end up not bothering to vote. 

Perhaps the least uncertain difference between Obama and McCain is the election funds they have available. Obama has collected more than $600 million, while McCain, whose funds are exhausted, has had to ask for $85 million from public funds. And in a country where the dollar is the best campaign adviser, this difference could finally decide who wins. >> See activity"