Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030. “Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths for integration with the EU”. Final Report
Research Team: Rym Ayadi, Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stella Tsani, Pantelis Capros, Carlo Sessa, Riccardo Enei and Marc Gafarot
The interest in the study of secession processes and their consequences for the EU and international relations has motivated this research project led by CIDOB and CEPS in collaboration with the Istituto di Studi per l'Integrazione dei Sistemi of Rome (ISIS) and the E3-modeling laboratory of the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS) of the Polytechnic University of Athens. The debate on the feasibility of a new state fruit of secession goes beyond the political debate and requires rigorous contributions on its consequences. This study aims to identify the scenarios of Catalonia’s future developments with regards to the rest of Spain and of its cooperation with the entire EU.
2. INTRODUCTION
3. PART 1: THE IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS OF SECESSION
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Theoretical approaches to secession
3.2.1. Review of the literature
3.2.2. Studies on the implications of Catalonia’s secession
3.3. The economy of Catalonia: Recent developments and the fiscal deficit with the State Administration
3.4. Modeling approach and methodological considerations
3.4.1. The Catalan economy
3.4.2. The reference scenario
3.4.3. Alternative scenarios on Catalonia’s secession from Spain
3.5. Results of the alternative secession scenarios
3.5.1. Macroeconomic implications
3.5.2. Impact on Consumption, Investment and Trade
3.5.3. Labour Market
3.5.4. Sectoral production
3.5.5. Alternative uses of public funds.
3.6. Conclusions
4. PART 2: PATHS FOR CATALONIA AS AN INDEPENDENT EUROPEAN STATE
4.1. Scenarios for independent Catalonia relations with the EU under a Status-quo European Union
4.2. A forward looking strategy: Scenarios for independent Catalonia relations with the EU under a reformed “European Political Union” (EPU)
5. PART 3: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
6. REFERENCES
7. APPENDIX 1: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW ABOUT CATALANISM AND MODERN SELF-GOVERNMENT
8. APPENDIX A: GEM-E3-CAT MODEL DESCRIPTION
9. APPENDIX B: THE DATABASE OF THE CATALAN REGION
10. APPENDIX C: ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF SECESSION IN SPAIN AND THE EU
