Scenarios for Governance Breakdown and Violent Conflict in the EU’s Neighbourhood

EU-LISTCO Booklet (2019)

This booklet presents 13 scenarios for governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s neighbourhood which were created in the context of the EU-LISTCO research project. Scenarios are plausible thought experiments about alternative future developments. Each is useful for learning something new about a topic and its uncertain future. Useful scenarios are not probable or likely from a current perspective because they necessarily diverge from current expectations. The usefulness of a scenarios lies in the eyes of its creators. To their authors, each offers new perspectives and a deeper understanding of the topics in question. We hope this booklet helps readers learn something new, broaden their horizons and think differently about the scenario topics. We would, however, ask all readers to recognize the origin of the scenarios as briefly described below. This is crucial for their understanding, as the scenarios cannot and were never meant to offer a neutral perspective on future developments