Parlamentary elections 2012
The electoral system
The parliamentary elections in Ukraine are scheduled for October 28th, 2012 (http://zakon1.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/4061-17). This time the voters will elect their representatives in the Verkhovna Rada by a new electoral legislation, a mixed one. The new law was adopted in November 2011 and is applied to the forthcoming elections. The new legislature scraps the proportional electoral system, which was used during the last two elections, and returns the country to the year 2002. All new is a forgotten old: a decade ago Ukraine used to have a mixed electoral system, combining a proportional party list representation and a majority voting requirement in single-member electoral districts. The reinstated mixed procedure stipulates that out of the 450 deputies 225 will be elected from closed party lists, and another 225 deputies are elected by majority vote among the competing candidates in single-member districts. Those who run in single-member districts can be either represented by a political party, or self-nominated candidates. The law introduces some novelties into election practice forbidding electoral blocs and establishing a 5% barrier abolishing to the former 3%. Moreover the option of voting ‘Against all’ is also excluded. Apart from that, the passed law allows the homebound voting for disabled voters and ill persons in presence of a special commission representative.
Although the re-installed system is not something new or unusual for the world practice, new electoral provisions do rise questions about the possibility of gerrymandering, ‘killing’ of the opposition voters support by banning the blocks, raising the threshold and other procedures that politically benefit to the pro-government forces, but are overtly unfavourable for the opposition.
Within less than two weeks before the elections, polls reveal that less than a half of Ukrainians have a full grasp of the new electoral rules: only 48% are aware that October 28th parliamentary elections will involve elections of the parliament’s half through a competition in single-mandate districts. The sociologist claim these findings to be the most disturbing since the single-mandates will be decisive in the elections.
The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission concluded that the law on parliamentary elections could go further to ensure fully democratic elections. The joint opinion pointed that the threshold and the ban on electoral blocs were introduced without consultation with other political parties and civil society. Moreover it was stressed that some of the provisions do not facilitate free and equal access of all political forces to parliament.
Political parties
Only those which according to the polls can take more than 5%
Party of Regions. Established in 2001, the party was a successor of “The party of Regional Revival of Ukraine” founded in 1997 and is considered to be a party of a big capital. Now the number of its members is around half a million people. The party claims to defend the rights of the Russian-speakers and Ukraine and is regarded as Russia-alienated one. After being in the ruling coalition at the time of L. Kuchma’s presidency, the party moved to opposition camp, when its leader V. Yanukovych lost the 2004 presidential election. After the parliamentary elections in 2007 the party managed to gain majority seats in the parliament with the help of Communist party and separate members of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine party. V. Yanukovych is the honorary leader of the party. Chairman of the party is Mykola Azarov, current Prime-Minister.
Official web-site: http://www.partyofregions.org.ua/
All Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” (“Fatherland”)
Is the second largest political party represented now in the Ukrainian parliament. Led by Yulia Tymoshenko, the party was founded in 1999 and first took part in the parliamentary elections in 2002 within the wider Yulia Tymoshenko Electoral Bloc (BYuT). The primary rival of the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna (as a part of BYuT) succeeded in the parliamentary elections 2006 and 2007, obtaining more than 150 seats out of 450 in Verkhovna Rada. After the introduction of the new Electoral Law in late 2011, which bans the political blocs from the elections, party re-appeared as a sole political entity out of the wider Yulia Tymoshenko Electoral Bloc. After the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko in 2011, it was decided to join the party with Arseniy Yatsenyuk’ “Front of Changes” party in order to increase the potential number of votes. Although, Yulia Tymoshenko was not allowed to run for the elections by the Central Electoral Commission, she is symbolically under number one in the party list.
Official web-site: http://www.byut.com.ua/
The Communist party of Ukraine is the only party among the rest, which was represented during all the parliament terms after the independence proclamation in 1991. After the collapse of the USSR the Communist party was restored in 1993. Petro Symonenko was elected its leader, whom he remains by now. The party has been confidently passing the 3% threshold during all the previous parliamentary elections. According to the polls, the communists will also overcome the newly raised barrier of 5%. The communist enjoy the highest support in the Southern regions of Ukraine.
Official web-site: http://www.kpu.net.ua/Main/
UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform) is a political party initiated and established by the heavyweight boxer Vitaliy Klitschko. It was created during the party congress held in April 2010. The party was not created from a scratch but appeared as a renamed version of the Bloc of Vitaliy Klychko. UDAR has refused to join the United Opposition on the parliamentary elections 2012 and stands in the elections independently.
Official web-site: http://klichko.org/
All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” is the party with official right-wing nationalist ideology. Founded in 2004 on the basis of the Social-National Party of Ukraine, it gained the lion’s share of its support in the Western Ukraine. Since then the party started to move up from the local to the state level. Svoboda tried to compete in the parliamentary elections 2007, but managed to get only 0,76% of the votes. According to the recent polls, Svoboda skyrocketed, and now can make around 5% passing the election threshold. The leader of Svoboda is Oleh Tyahnybok.
Official web-site: http://www.svoboda.org.ua/
Ukraine – Forward is a political party, which officially emerged in March 2012. By this time the party has existed as Ukrainian Social Democratic Party. The party led by Natalia Korolevska used to be a constituent part of Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT). After the party convention in March 2012 it was renamed and runs in the elections as Party of Natalia Korolevska “Ukraine - Forward”. The party, which swings between 4-5% according to the exit polls, got public attention after the famous football player Andriy Shevchenko was introduced as the number 2 in the party list. The leader, N. Korolevska, positions the party as a “new force” within the Ukrainian political landscape. However, she is constantly accused of being a political project funded by the richest Ukrainian Rinat Akhemtov, who is also a member of the Party of Regions.
Official web-site: http://ukraina-vpered.com/
Analysis and opinions (before the elections)
Will the 2012 Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections Matter? Olga Shumylo-Tapiola. Carnegie Endowment (13.09. 2012)
Parliamentary elections 2012: is Ukraine repeating history? O. Faryna. Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
Ukraine: a closer look at the upcoming elections. Matthew Rojansky, Mykhailo Okhendovskyi. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (11.07.2012)
Setbacks to media freedom in run-up to elections. Reporters without Borders (22.07.2012)
The beginning of the election campaign in Ukraine. Tadeusz A. Olszanski. Centre for Eastern Studies, Eastweek. (22.08.2012)
Ukraine: last elections in a divided country? Y. Vasylyev. New Eastern Europe (25.09.2012)
Electoral Songs. M. Riabchuk. Current Politics in Ukraine (09.10.2012)
Footballers and other candidates. The Economist. Eastern Approaches (08.10.2012)
Rigging elections, Ukrainian-style. S. Leshchenko. Open Democracy (10.10.2012)
European deputy stunned by Ukrainian ruling party’s election tricks. KyivPost (13.10.2012)
Opposition’s sociological primaries: playing with people’s minds. Democratic Initiatives Foundation (15.10.2012)
Ukraine prepares to elect parliament. S. Duz. Voice of Russia (16.10.2012)
Ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine. T.A. Olszanski. Centre for Eastern Studies. Eastweek (17.10.2012)
Ten days before polling day. The Economist. Eastern Approaches (18.10.2012)
Five more years of Yanukovych. A.J. Motyl, R. Menon. Foreign Affairs (23.10.2012)
Moment of truth for freedom of information, concern on eve of elections. Reporters without Borders (24.10.2012)
International observers: Election campaign relatively peaceful, violations reported. UkrInform (24.10.2012)
Public opinion polls
Elections campaign 2012: expectations and threats
Results of the "The election campaign begins" survey comparing the experts’ and the population’s opinion.
Source: Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 30 July 2012
Translation from Ukrainian: CIDOB
1. How, in your opinion, will be the parliamentary elections? (in %)
| Experts July 2012 | Population April 2012 | |
| Will be fair, without fraud | 0 | 6 |
| There will be some violations, but they will not affect the overall result | 9 | 24 |
| I assume that the results may be skewed | 61 | 37 |
| I'm sure they will be manipulated | 29 | 24 |
| Hard to answer | 1 | 9 |
2. Do you agree that the elections in Ukraine are the real mechanism of citizen participation in government? (in %)
| Experts July 2012 | Population April 2012 | |
| Completely disagree | 8 | 21 |
| Basically disagree | 37 | 25 |
| Basically agree | 40 | 28 |
| Completely agree | 8 | 4 |
| Hard to answer | 7 | 21 |
3. What, in your opinion, the most prevents elections in Ukraine to become a mechanism of citizens participation in power (in %) (Tick all factors that you consider the most important)
| Experts July 2012 | Population April 2012 | |
| Discrepancy between the elections and democratic norms | 42 | 30 |
| Formation of the executive power not based on the elections results | 36 | 31 |
| Non fulfilment of the promises made before elections | 57 | 59 |
| Absence of the permanent public control over elected incumbents | 69 | 38 |
| Blurred political programmes | 24 | 23 |
| Low quality of the candidates – whoever wins, it won’t be better | 42 | 45 |
| Passiveness of the electorate | 69 | 29 |
| There are no obstructions, elections in Ukraine are a real mechanism of voters’ influence | 0 | 2 |
| Hard to answer | 0 | 7 |
4. What, in your opinion, should be undertaken to make the future parliamentary elections democratic? (in %)
| Experts July 2012 | Population June 2012 | |
| Bringing the elections under control of civil organisations | 70 | 28 |
| Demanding clear programmes and proposals from the candidates and parties | 34 | 17 |
| Engaging international observers | 49 | 30 |
| As a preventive measure making public once again the facts of rigging during the previous presidential elections | 36 | - |
| Bringing guaranties that all persons involved in fraud will be subjected to criminal responsibility | 68 | 46 |
| Let convicted Y. Tymoshenko and Y. Lutsenko to run in the elections | 40 | 15 |
| Independent sociological surveys | 51 | 10 |
| Exit polls | 62 | 15 |
| I think that nothing can make the coming elections fair and democratic | 7 | 12 |
| Hard to answer | 1 | 10 |
5. How do you think, what forms of abuse will be most common during the elections? (in %)
| Experts July 2012 | |
| Use of administrative and state resources by certain parties or individual politicians (officials, transport, state media) | 92 |
| Bribing of the voters (money, services) | 88 |
| Direct falsification of the results during the vote count or filling in of the protocols with the abused results | 69 |
| Pressure on media (threats to cancel the licenses, tax audits etc.) | 66 |
| Sanctions against entrepreneurs, who take part in the elections or donate for parties or individual politicians | 65 |
| Direct or hidden pressure, threats of persecution of candidates, activists or political parties | 64 |
| Manipulations with the lists of voters | 60 |
| Criminal persecution or administrative punishment of the politicians (potential or factual candidates), detention or arrest during the campaign | 56 |
| Vote buying on the day of elections | 53 |
| Using the courts as a mean to correct the results | 53 |
| Direct or hidden pressure on civil activists, obstruction of the civil activities called to monitor the electoral campaign | 51 |
| Limitation of opportunities to campaigning and meeting with the voters | 47 |
| Throwing in ballots on the day of elections | 43 |
| Impeding the parties and candidates in their agitation in media or billboards | |
| Else | 6 |
6. Which of these abuses are, in your opinion, the most dangerous regarding the voters’ will distortion? (in %) (Choose not more than 5 most dangerous)
| Experts July 2012 | |
| Direct falsification of the results during the votes count or filling of the protocols | 74 |
| Use of administrative and state resources by certain parties or individual politicians (officials, transport, state media) | 53 |
| Bribing of the voters (money, services) | 44 |
| Criminal persecution or administrative punishment of the politicians (potential or factual candidates), detention or arrest during the campaign | 44 |
| Using the courts as a mean to correct the results | 35 |
| Manipulations with the lists of voters | 34 |
| Direct or hidden pressure, threats of persecution of candidates, activists or political parties | 34 |
| Pressure on media (threats to cancel the licenses, tax audits etc.) | 30 |
| Throwing in ballots on the day of elections | 29 |
| Vote buying on the day of elections | 29 |
| Sanctions against entrepreneurs, who take part in the elections or donate for parties or individual politicians | 21 |
| Direct or hidden pressure on civil activists, obstruction of the civil activities called to monitor the electoral campaign | 20 |
| Limitation of opportunities to campaigning and meeting with the voters | 11 |
| Impeding the parties and candidates in their agitation in media or billboards | 4 |
| Other | 5 |
Omnibus survey key findings. International Foundation for Electoral System (16.05.2012)
The dynamics of socio-political moods of the population: September 2012. Sociological Group Rating (13.09.2012)
Public feeling in Ukraine ahead of the parliamentary election. T. Iwanski. Centre for Eastern Studies (14.09.2012)
Poll: Small number of Ukrainians believes parliamentary elections will be fair. KyivPost (12.10.2012)
Last party ratings before the finish line. Democratic Initiatives Foundation (14.10.2012)
Ukrainians opt for EU membership, in particular the youth. Democratic Initiatives Foundation (June 2006 - December 2011)