
Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030.
Research Team: Rym Ayadi, Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stella Tsani, Pantelis Capros, Carlo Sessa, Riccardo Enei and Marc Gafarot
This study aims at identifying the distinctive political and economical scenarios that Catalonia may have to face should it become and independent country in the horizon 2030.
The interest of the study of secession processes and its consequences in the international relations arena motivated this research launched by CIDOB in collaboration with CEPS, ISIS and ICCS, amidst the recent events that surfaced in Scotland, Catalonia and others towards independence. To date, none of the European Union countries have experienced a break-up of a part of its territory once they have joined the EU. 2014 marked a referendum in Scotland and massive citizen mobilisations in Catalonia on the independence question. In Scotland, the referendum, despite tight results, was in favour of rejecting secession. In Catalonia, as the independence alternative is gaining ground while political and legal quarrel between the central and regional governments continue, a full-fledged and informed economic assessment of the different scenarios is needed to devise the best policy options for future developments.
The study aims at identifying the scenarios of future development of Catalonia with the rest of Spain and cooperation with the European Union in particular:
The exercise provides to the policy makers an essential background that helps understanding the costs and benefits of different policy strategies in the years to come, and helps to detect the best circumstances that would help to shape a successful transition process in different independence scenarios from the point of view of:
Researchers responsible:
Mrs. Rym Ayadi (CEPS) and Mr. Jordi Bacaria (CIDOB)
Marc Gafarot
Research Team: Rym Ayadi, Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stella Tsani, Pantelis Capros, Carlo Sessa, Riccardo Enei and Marc Gafarot