Carme Colomina, Research Fellow at CIDOB, answers Judy Dempsey’s question at Carnegie Endowment’s Strategic Europe blog: “The longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the more fragile European unity will be. Differences over a boycott of Russian hydrocarbon imports have been the first fracture line. There will be others.  

When EU countries were confronted with this war scenario, they were already exhausted by the economic, social, and political costs of the pandemic. A fragile EU will have to cope with an increase in defense spending, while reducing energy dependency and dealing with high inflation. 

The question is how the burden of the costs of the war will be shared. Once again, the price to pay will be unequal. Not all member states have the same debt capacity, nor do all EU citizens feel equally vulnerable to the costs of the ongoing transitions.  

Spain is less exposed to energy dependence on Russia but fears the consequences of supply shortage, especially of cereals, and rising prices in North Africa. Inflationary tensions and the struggle for the recovery of purchasing power is already stressing the Spanish economy.  

Not only European unity, but also the stability of some European governments, will depend on the balance between sacrifices and costs.”