The international economy in 2011

Publication date:
John Williamson

The middle of 2011 marked two years since the start of the current recovery. The dominant fact about this recovery is that it has been led by the emerging markets rather than by the "advanced countries", most of which have remained at best with excess supply, a positive output gap and a slow rate of growth and at worst are dominated by continuing crisis. Indeed, most developing countries and not just those usually now referred to as "emerging markets" (those developing countries that have achieved regular access to the international capital market) have been growing faster than the advanced (or developed) countries during the present upswing. There are those of us who believe that this is the start of a historical trend that is likely to persist unless and until the world is consumed by the threat of climate change.