Pakistán: future scenarios and the regional context

Publication date:
Emma Hooper and Moeed Yusuf

Pakistan is often referred to as a failed or failing state. Almost since its creation in 1947, it has repeatedly been forecast as being on the brink of disaster (the wars with India and the splitting-off of the former East Pakistan into Bangladesh, economic crises and security challenges), or of provincial fragmentation (as a consequence of inter- and intra-provincial disparities in wealth, culture, the war in Afghanistan and the periodic insurgency in Balochistan). Yet, despite these gloomy prognostics, Pakistan continues to remain intact and alive as a country, albeit with severe economic, political and security challenges, and not – so far – "failed". What accounts for this, and what are the likely future scenarios that could be envisaged for Pakistan, as a result?