Europe Programme - [06/16/2008]

Trans-Atlantic relations after the US elections. European breakfast with Andrés Ortega

The analyst Andrés Ortega examined the proposals of the two candidates for the White House, McCain and Obama, with respect to trans-Atlantic relations. In the opinion of the analyst, Republicans and Democrats agree that the United States needs to return to multilateralism, a trend that was commenced during the last mandate of George Bush, partly due to pressure from the Democrat majority in Congress, along with a new, more realistic view that is beginning to penetrate the American administration, which is well aware that the largest military power on the planet cannot go it alone on issues such as security, climate change and the non-proliferation of nuclear power and of weapons of mass destruction, for which it needs European support.

Ortega claimed that the change in administration would bring with it greater receptiveness by the United States to some of Europe’s demands, such as the fight against climate change and, generally speaking, both candidates have promised to "listen more to their allies ". In spite of the enthusiasm and expectations that the positive change that could be made by the new occupant of the White House has awoken in some governments such as in France and Germany as well as in Spain, Ortega believes that the new president "will be a transition figure in the final years of the conservative revolution that was initiated by Reagan”. A transition that coincides, he claimed, with "a reconfiguration of power relations in the world that began following the fall of the Berlin Wall".

Ortega forecast that trans-Atlantic relations will continue to be of basic importance, though there will be fewer agreements than during the Cold War, and on the new world stage, with power moving from West to East, he said that “China will be the basic element in trans-Atlantic relations, as they may lose importance on a more global stage”. He put forward the fundamental question of "whether we (the trans-Atlantic community) are still capable of influencing the way the world takes shape”. In opinion, the answer is, "less and less”. He argued that the main problem that the trans-Atlantic community is facing in exporting its model of values is that the rest of the world does not follow them anymore.

The analyst concluded by claiming that in a multipolar world, there may be agreement between Europe and the United States on "what to do, but what is not clear is how to encourage the rest of the world to join the enterprise". In his opinion, if the multipolar world is not transformed into a multilateral one, and if progress is not made towards global governance, trans-Atlantic relations will not be of much use.

Andrés Ortega, Director General of the Department of Analysis and Research of the Presidency of the Spanish Government.

>> Informe ampliado. Relación íntegra, en estilo indirecto, de la conferencia extendida con vínculos a información de apoyo elaborada a partir de referencias del conferenciante. (pdf 67kB)