Mediterranean and Middle East - [03/11/2009]

Elections in Israel: Two peoples with their backs to each other

On 9 March, the CIDOB Foundation and the Catalan Association of Political Scientists and Sociologists held a debate workshop on the Israeli elections that were held on 10 February 2009. The workshop was structured around the presentation of an analysis by Daniel Shenhar, a lawyer for Ha-Moked: Center for the Defence of the Individual, (a body that collaborates with the Electoral Observatory of the International Mediterranean Studies Workshop [TEIM] and with the CIDOB Foundation). Shenhar's presentation analysed not only the results of the recent elections in Israel, but also the factors that marked the electoral campaign. His analysis was followed by speeches by Alfred Tovías, an economist and internationalist, an expert in EU-Israel relations and a guest lecturer at the IBEI; Ferran Izquierdo, political scientist and Lecturer in International Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, and Joan Roura, journalist and special correspondent for TV3 to the Near East.

In his address, Shenhar described the political situation in Israel that led to the calling of early elections, and explained the repercussions of the electoral system and the ideological and ethnic-religious cleavages in the country's political life. Shenhar stressed that the nature of the Israeli electoral system (it uses a pure form of proportional representation) generates a great deal of parliamentary fragmentation, and necessitates coalitions between many different parties. On this occasion, furthermore, it turned out that the most-voted party (Kadima) did not gain sufficient parliamentary support to govern.

Shenhar went on to explain how the effects of the brutal military campaign in Gaza had strengthened Kadima and the Labour Party, but without managing to guarantee them sufficient support. Consequently, the country will end up being governed by an alliance between the right-wing and the religious parties. The result of the elections distances us even further, Shenhar claimed, from “a resolution of the conflict with the Palestinians”.

Alfred Tovías highlighted the importance of the votes of Israelis of Russian origin. He added that Benjamín Netanyahu, the prime minister of the new government, will continue to oppose a two-state solution, though he will carry on trying to persuade Livni's party to form part of a coalition government. Tovías also spoke in depth about the causes of the rise of Israel Beitenu, a party that is viewed as being far-right in Europe but which, Tovías believes, could become more pragmatic, for example by supporting the separation of state and religion or by accepting a two-state solution. However, Tovías disagreed with Shenhar, claiming that the Gaza crisis had not had any great impact on the electoral results.

Ferran Izquierdo, meanwhile, focused on the decidedly military tone of Israel's recent electoral campaign. He also warned of the imminent dangers involved in dividing up a society into ethnic groups, as proposed by Lieberman (the leader of Israel Beitenu). Izquierdo pointed out that unlike Likud, the Labour Party, Kadima and Israel Beitenu might be in favour of creating two states, but that the conditions they set (maintaining the wall, territorial modifications) make the offer unacceptable for Palestinians.

Joan Roura agreed with Izquierdo that a loss of confidence in the Israeli government can be observed. He declared that there would be no military victory, and that parties such as Hamas emerged ever stronger, personifying the resistance to occupation and the change in a Palestinian political scenario that had been characterised by corruption. He also made the point that, albeit on different levels, Israel and Hamas do not mutually recognise each other, and that they both ignore international laws and resolution. In Roura's opinion, the situation is unfortunately moving towards a process of ‘bantustanization’ which is making any prospects for peace increasingly unlikely.

After the presentation, a lively debate took place with the other workshop participants. The issues covered included the difficulties in concluding a peace agreement, the role that could be played by international actors (and particularly the new US government), the differences between the concepts of 'right-wing' and 'left-wing' in Europe and in Israel, and the disappearance of social and economic issues from the Israeli electoral campaign.

Once again, the debate held at the CIDOB Foundation reflected the high emotions that the Middle East conflict generates, though it also demonstrated the need to bring different viewpoints to the table, as well as the benefits that derive from observing electoral processes as points of particular interest in the process of defining the future of the Mediterranean and the Middle East.