Mediterranean Programme - [12/17/2007]

CIDOB considers the prospects for peace in the Middle East in 2008

There was a pervading mood of scepticism regarding the possibility of a peaceful end to the Arab-Israeli conflict in 2008 among the participants of the round table discussion 2008: The prospects for peace in the Middle East, an event organised by the CIDOB Foundation's Mediterranean Programme and the Association of Political Scientists and Sociologists of Catalonia.

The round table discussed the different focal points of tension in the strategic region and analysed possible future scenarios for 2008. The chairperson of the round table, Albert Moreno, international affairs adviser to José Montilla, President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, expressed his scepticism by declaring that it is better to sit down at the negotiating table than not to do so. Nevertheless, he stressed that Israel might miss the chance to obtain a peace agreement in accord with its interests.

Jaume Saura, Lecturer in Law at the University of Barcelona, echoed Moreno's sentiments, declaring himself to be not very optimistic for a possible peaceful, negotiated end to the conflict. He claimed that the political authorities on both sides were weak, and that the situation had deteriorated since the beginning of the peace process in Madrid in 1991. Among the elements hampering the agreement are the existence of the wall built by Israel, the rise in popularity of Hamas and the latter's distancing from the peace process, the proliferation of settlements and the economic asphyxiation of Palestine.

Even less optimistic was Joan Roura, Deputy Editor for International Affairs at TV3; he called the meeting held in Annapolis in late November (created as an anti-Iran forum) a “conference of war”. Roura went on to speak about the situation in Iraq, giving particular emphasis to the pre-war situation in the north of the country, and the consequences of the invasion of Iraq, which has led to the dismemberment of the country, as well as creating a virtually independent Kurdistan. The latter event has increased tensions with Turkey, a country that is suspicious of any change in the status quo of its southern neighbour. Roura also alluded to Iran’s key role in the future stabilisation of Iraq.

Elvira Sánchez, Lecturer in International Relations at the Barcelona Institute for International Studies (IBEI), discussed the role of the United States, a key actor or “third actor”, as the speaker put it. During her address, Sánchez examined the essential elements of US policy toward the area, mentioning interests of an economic, strategic-military and ideological nature, as well as America’s affinity with Israel. The speaker made the point that, owing to a lack of political coherence, US diplomatic interventions in the area all tend to fail, which leads them to embark on military interventions. She stressed that no fundamental changes would take place in US policy, even if a political change were to occur following the elections in November 2008.

The only participant who showed relative optimism towards the possible development of the peace process was Eduard Soler, Coordinator of the CIDOB Foundation's Mediterranean Programme. In his address, he analysed the role of the European Union in the peace process, a role which, he claims, has been minimal in the political sense and wide-ranging in the economic sense. Nevertheless, he pointed out that in recent years, the EU has been trying to gain greater influence (the Quartet, ESDP operations in Palestine and Iraq, UNIFIL in Lebanon). As a consequence, if a peace agreement were to prosper, then the EU is expected to play a more important political role than on previous occasions.

Furthermore, Soler emphasised the important role that the EU is playing in dissuading Turkey from military occupation of the north of Iraq, given that such an intervention could halt or even break down the recovery process. Even so, the speakers noted that the EU does not possess the necessary instruments to prevent such operations, which are already taking place.

Finally, the participants took part in a debate that was opened to the audience and which tackled the issues of Iran's nuclear program, the processes of ethnic and religious segregation in the region, the role of elites in countries such as Lebanon and the current situation of the Syrian government.

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