Mediterranean Programme - [06/12/2007]

"America has not achieved the aims that motivated its invasion of Iraq"

During a talk entitled Filling the security vacuum in Iraq: Analysis of the US strategy, Joost Hiltermann, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme of the International Crisis Group, argued that the US has not succeeded in achieving the aims that motivated its invasion of Iraq. The talk, which was held in the Jordi Maragall Hall of the CIDOB Foundation and co-organised by Casa Árabe (Instituto Internacional de Estudios Árabes y del Mundo Musulmán) was based on an analysis of US strategy in Iraq, and included the participation of Fred Halliday, Lecturer at the London School of Economics and the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals.

According to Hiltermann, the United States invaded Iraq with several aims in mind, including: bringing down the dictatorial regime and installing a democratic government that would serve as an example for the region, ridding the country of weapons of mass destruction, bringing an end to Al-Qaeda and warning the government of Iran over the consequences of continuing with its nuclear program. According to the Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme of the International Crisis Group, America has not fulfilled any of these aims, given that at the present moment, the country still does not possess a democratic government capable of safeguarding the security of its population, no weapons of mass destruction have been found, Al-Qaeda has become stronger and the Iranians have increased their influence in the region as a result of the chaos in Iraq.

In addition to the reasons behind the invasion, Hiltermann also examined the main mistakes that have been made during the conflict, and various possible solutions for the situation. The diplomatic expert claims that the first mistake was to base the invasion on a report drafted by a small group of neoconservatives advised by members of the military from the Pentagon, who did not consult the CIA, the State Department or United Nations, nor did they plan measures for future stabilisation, reconstruction or the institution of order in Iraq once the military offensive was over.

Hiltermann pointed out that the unilateral invasion, which took place without UN consent, has raised suspicion in certain countries. Some consider that, despite its declaration of intentions, the US was pursuing less legitimate motives, such as gaining access to oilfields or supporting Israeli interests.

The Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme of the International Crisis Group explained that the most serious mistakes that were made after the fall of Saddam Hussein created vacuums in the areas of security, politics and administration. The dissolving of the Iraqi army without first having formed an efficient police force or other control mechanisms resulted in a massive security vacuum. Furthermore, a huge power vacuum was created when the new Iraqi government was constituted, and exiled Iraqis were chosen in preference to political leaders opposed to Hussein’s regime, who were excluded from parliament. Finally, Hiltermann argues, this power vacuum was exacerbated by a lack of decision-making on the part of the Americans.

In closing, Hiltermann proposed solutions for the crisis, putting forward three possible scenarios. First of all, an end should be brought to the current insecurity and violence, so that the Iraqi government can take control. The second scenario involved the possibility of the country becoming divided up into three areas: Kurdish, Shi'ite and Sunni, though this would bring the added difficulty of having to draw up borders that would facilitate the historical interaction between different communities. The third scenario was that the country would collapse and become partially occupied by Turkey and Iran, with all the destabilising effects that this would produce throughout the region.

According to Hiltermann, failure to find a solution to the conflict would produce negative consequences such as a flow of refugees into Jordan and Syria, an intensification of terrorism and an increase in the price of oil, a factor that would have obvious repercussions for the world economy.

Meanwhile, Fred Halliday, lecturer at the London School of Economics and at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals, predicted that this conflict will turn into the essential conflict in the region, with Iran and her allies on one side, and the US and her allies on the other, given that both countries have lost control.

Halliday also warned of the dangers that might result from the partition of Iraq, given that the Iranians will not accept such a solution and that the creation of a Kurdish region could lead to it being invaded by Turkey. On top of all this, the situation would have negative consequences both for US prestige and democracy in general.

During the debate, the speakers also analysed the origin of the conflict between Shi'ites and Sunnis, and how the outlook for a possible solution would change if the Democrats won the coming US presidential elections.

>> For more information, see attached invitation (pdf 206kB)

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